Monday, May 7, 2012

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 79.64; (P) 80.01; (R1) 80.24; More...

USD/JPY recovers mildly and is still staying in range above 79.64 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for some more consolidations. Even in case of another recovery, upside is expected to be limited below 81.77 resistance and bring fall resumption finally. Below 79.64 will extend the decline from 84.17 to 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13 first. Break will pave the way to 75.56/76.02 support zone.

In the bigger picture, 75.56 should be a medium term bottom on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the lack of follow through rally and failure below 85.51 resistance argues that the trend hasn't reversed yet. And USD/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation. In any case, outlook will remain mildly bearish in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and a new low below 75.56 is in favor.

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